With this article, eirenicon llc formally begins active monitoring of political and military developments of concern. Cui bono—who benefits? We will strive to present honest, balanced observations for those who wish to be informed, not led.
June 16, 2025 – A Post-Hegemony Primer Dispatch
1. The Tanker Signal
On the evening of June 15 into the early hours of June 16, an unusual procession of over two dozen U.S. Air Force tankers—KC-135Rs and KC-46As—moved eastward across the Atlantic. The scale, pace, and coordination of this deployment signals much more than a training exercise. These are strategic enablers, not combat aircraft themselves—sent ahead of or in support of operations that require endurance, reach, and tempo.
Whether intended to support Israeli sorties, enable U.S. operations directly, or establish an air bridge for future contingencies, this deployment marks a significant pivot. It is not a move made lightly. It places fuel in the sky now for events that may unfold within days.1
2. SAMs, Shame, and Shadows
The recent Israeli strike on Tehran—reaching deep into the Iranian capital—did more than damage physical infrastructure. It exposed the strategic limitations of Iran’s Russian-supplied air defense systems, including the S-300. Russia has taken note. In recent days, Russian forces have quietly repositioned assets out of Syria, redeploying to locations in Libya and the Caucasus. Their posture has shifted from overt deterrence to distributed resilience.2
Russia’s embarrassment is operational and reputational. In response, they are reaffirming support for regional proxies—most notably Hezbollah—and shoring up indirect means of influence. Their hand remains in the game, but more subtly.3
3. Axis of Movement: Iran, Turkey, Pakistan
Iran has entered a phase of retrenchment and recalibration. Though stung, its regional networks remain intact. Expect retaliatory strategies to flow through asymmetrical and proxy pathways.
Pakistan, already bristling from tension with India, has conducted large-scale air defense deployments and war games. These moves may be aimed at India but contribute to an atmosphere of readiness across the wider region. Pakistan’s posture is alert, and its alignment will matter if escalation spreads.5
Turkey is executing a slow-motion consolidation of power in northern Syria, building out air defenses and securing deconfliction channels with Israel. Their moves hint at ambition—and caution. They want to be in the room when the next order is drafted.4
4. The Flashpoint Window
The next 3–7 days—through roughly June 24—are an acute period of risk. Strategic surprise is less likely than operational follow-through. Israel may move again before Iran adapts. The U.S. may harden positions in anticipation of retaliation. A regional misstep, cyber-trigger, or shadow proxy attack could light a fire none can control.
This is a high-alert corridor.
5. Cui Bono: The Moral Weight of Anticipation
We write not to predict but to prevent surprise. There is a moral advantage in clarity—especially before the narratives harden. Most people will only hear the first loud explanation after the crisis, when it’s too late to understand the buildup.
We are not interested in sides. We are interested in causes, conditions, and consequences. We bear witness so that no one can say, “There was no warning.”
We are trying to be among those who did not look away.
6. If It Comes to Pass
If the coming days bring fire—if tankers feed bombers, if retaliation triggers a spiral—we will have already spoken. We will not have waited for the catastrophe to express concern. We will have written not in anger, but in sorrow. Not in silence, but in steadiness.
This is not a prophecy. It is a primer.
May it be unnecessary.
References
- “Armada of USAF Tankers Just Deployed East Over Atlantic” — The War Zone, June 16, 2025. ??
- “The Latest: Death toll grows as Israel and Iran trade attacks” — AP News, June 14–15, 2025. ??
- “Russia Withdraws Air?Defense Systems From Syria to Libya” — Wall Street Journal, Oct 2024. ??
- “Turkey and Israel set up hotline over Syria tensions” — Middle East Eye, May 2025. ??
- “Pakistan continues military buildup along Indian border” — Economic Times, May 2025. ??
Post-Hegemony Primer Dispatches are issued when the winds of world order shift. For previous entries and updates, visit: eirenicon.org/post-hegemony-primer
—The Editors, Eirenicon LLC
This content is free to use, adapt, and share.
Knowledge and information should be open—please spread them far and wide.A few things to keep in mind:
- All of my work comes with absolutely no warranty, expressed or implied. However…
- It will almost certainly work until it breaks,
though I must admit it may never work or be useful—and that would be sad.- If/when it breaks, you can keep all the pieces.
- As for what you don’t like, it’s yours to do with as you will.
- If you find my materials helpful, both you and I will be happy (at least for a while).
- My advice is worth every penny you paid for it!
Full disclosure:
I use various AI systems to assist in developing my content.
If you’re curious about how I use them, feel free to check out:
The Revolutionary Impact of AI on Genealogy and Historical Research.
