Blog

As financial markets reel from the recent tariff announcements, a perfect storm of technical indicators and safe-haven asset movements is painting a concerning picture for investors. Let’s examine what these signals tell us about the current market environment and potential strategies going forward.

Technical Warning Signs Flash Red

The S&P 500 is currently displaying two significant warning signs that demand attention. First, the 125-day moving average has changed slope direction, indicating a shift in the intermediate-term trend. Second, and perhaps more alarming, the index is trading approximately 800 points below this moving average—a substantial deviation suggesting powerful selling pressure.^[1]

These technical indicators alone would warrant caution, but when combined with sentiment metrics, the picture grows starker. The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at an eye-opening 4—deep within “Extreme Fear” territory.^[2] This reading suggests panic selling and capitulation may be underway as investors abandon risk assets in favor of safety.

Safe-Haven Assets Tell the Story

The movements across traditional safe-haven assets provide crucial context to these technical warnings:

Precious Metals Divergence

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented heights, reaching $3,167.57 per ounce on April 3, 2025—a new all-time high.^[3] The metal gained 10% in March alone, clearly asserting its status as the premier safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, silver has dropped sharply to $31 per ounce, its lowest point in over eight weeks. This 9% decline since Wednesday has pushed the gold-silver ratio to 100, a level not seen since June 2020.^[4] This divergence is particularly telling—investors are seeking pure safety rather than assets with industrial exposure, reflecting deeper concerns about economic prospects.

Other Safety Nets Activating

The flight to safety extends beyond precious metals:

• Safe-Haven Currencies: The Swiss franc and Japanese yen have strengthened against the USD as capital seeks secure harbors.^[5]

• Credit Markets: U.S. investment-grade bond spreads have widened to 106 basis points, while junk bond spreads have surged to 401 basis points—their highest since November 2023.^[6] This widening reflects increasing risk aversion in fixed income markets.

• Defensive Sectors: Utilities stocks, while declining, have outperformed the broader market, demonstrating their defensive qualities.

Trade War Concerns: Only the Beginning?

What makes the current situation particularly concerning is its catalyst. The market turmoil stems from President [redacted]’s tariff announcements just two days ago, followed by China’s response last night.^[7] This suggests we may be witnessing only the opening moves in what could become a broader trade conflict.

Several major economic players—the EU, UK, India, Japan, and South Korea—have yet to respond. Each response could trigger further market adjustments as traders reprice global growth expectations and supply chain disruptions.

Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times

In this environment, patience may prove the wisest approach. While extreme fear readings often present contrarian buying opportunities for long-term investors,^[8] the evolving nature of trade tensions suggests caution. The technical indicators and market sentiment metrics might be signaling not just a correction but potentially the early stages of a more significant market adjustment.

Rather than rushing to “buy the dip,” investors might consider:

1. Waiting for signs of stabilization across multiple asset classes
2. Watching for policy responses from major central banks
3. Monitoring how the trade situation develops across multiple economies
4. Preparing a strategic plan for gradual re-entry if opportunities arise

Conclusion

The combination of technical breakdown, extreme fear readings, and safe-haven asset movements suggests we’re in the midst of a significant market event driven by trade policy uncertainty. While history teaches us that markets eventually recover, the nature of this particular catalyst—with potentially more “shoes to drop” in the global trade arena—warrants patience and vigilance rather than immediate action.

As Warren Buffett famously advised, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”^[9] However, timing matters, and recognizing when fear has fully played out requires careful observation of both market technicals and the underlying geopolitical situation that triggered the selloff in the first place.

Disclaimer

Important Legal Disclosures and Disclaimers:

This blog post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation for any specific investment product or strategy. References to specific securities, asset classes, or markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.

The analysis, opinions, and conclusions expressed herein reflect the personal views of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this blog post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of this information cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.

The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this blog post. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on information provided in this blog post.

Technical analysis referenced in this article has inherent limitations and should not be used in isolation when making investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and there is no guarantee that historical patterns will repeat themselves.

Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations about future events. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

This is not a solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business. Consult a qualified financial professional before acting on any information provided.